NBA Playoff Predictions- Round 1

The NBA Playoffs are back and so are my predictions. There are some really tough matchups to call here but I'll do my best.

We'll start in the East:

(1) Miami Heat vs (8) Milwaukee Bucks- Heat 4-0. If this series isn't a sweep I'll be shocked. Miami is in the zone and locked in on a 2nd straight championship. This shouldn't be close.

(2) New York Knicks vs (7) Boston Celtics- Knicks 4-2. This series will be one for the ages. Celtics should win a couple of inspired games at home, but the Knicks will be too much for them shooting the 3. Rooting for Boston of course (Boston Strong!), but reality sets in and the Knicks should prevail. Game 6 will be won by less than 5 points.

(3) Indiana Pacers vs (6) Atlanta Hawks- Pacers 4-1. The Pacers are a classic "big-boy" team. Hibbert and West will dominate the boards and handle the, at times, inconsistent Atlanta Hawks. If Indiana had to face Chicago instead, it would be a very close series as these two teams are very similar.

(4) Brooklyn Nets vs (5) Chicago Bulls- Bulls 4-2. This is a tough series to call. I initially wanted to pick the Nets, but I feel their playoff inexperience will come back to haunt them. The Bulls are a very good rebounding team, and that should give them the edge in the series. Not sure how banged up Joakim Noah is, but the Bulls and their blue-collar work ethic in the paint should be enough.


And now to the West:

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs (8) Houston Rockets- Thunder 4-1. I'm being generous giving the Rockets one game here. I think James Harden will be inspired to play well against his former team for a game, but the Thunder have too much firepower and will win in 5.

(2) San Antonio Spurs vs (7) Los Angeles Lakers- Spurs 4-1. How in the world did the Lakers get in? Talk about a season of adversity! Howard and Gasol will keep this series interesting. All 5 games will be very close, but I give the edge to the Spurs. Tony Parker will be too much to handle and will be the MVP of the series. This one will be fun to watch!

(3) Denver Nuggets vs (6) Golden State Warriors- Nuggets 4-1. Kudos to the Warriors making the playoffs this year and congrats to Steph Curry for setting the record for most 3-pointers in a season. The Nuggets have played great this year and get no press. Even without Gallinari, they are a high octane offense that will roll over Golden State and their inferior defense.

(4) Los Angeles Clippers vs (5) Memphis Grizzlies- Clippers 4-3. This was another really difficult series to predict. I don't know very much about Memphis, but it seems that they quietly put together a nice season. This should be a highly entertaining series and the only one I think will go 7 games. Again, tough to call, but I like Lob City in this one. Yuvo, play funk!

Stay tuned for Round 2 predictions! Till then... Stay strong Boston! We love you!

2013 MLB Predictions

As promised, here are my picks for how the season will shape up.

AL East

1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. New York Yankees
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Boston Red Sox

I'm a Red Sox fan, but even I can't fool myself into thinking they have any legitimate shot at the playoffs this year. The Yankees don't look nearly as scary as they have in the past and I can't name anyone other than Sabathia on their pitching staff. The Blue Jays are my pick for most improved in the division and the Rays are still the team to beat.

AL Central

1. Detroit Tigers
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Minnesota Twins

This is the hardest division to call 2-5. My vote for the worst division in baseball has the Tigers winning by more than 10 games. The new look Indians with Terry Francona at the controls will be the team to watch for, but probably not this year.

AL West

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Houston Astros

The loss of Josh Hamilton to the Angels will have an affect on Texas as they begin their inevitable digression. The Angels are nasty this year and are probably the best team in the AL as they are loaded with talent. Welcome to the American League Astros. I think they'd finish last no matter what division you put them in. They stink.

AL Playoff Teams:

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Oakland Athletics
5. Toronto Blue Jays

NL East

1. Washington Nationals
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Miami Marlins
5. New York Mets

This is an interesting division. The Phillies could go either way depending on its team's health. If healthy they could be 2nd, but I'm giving it to the Braves who seem to be the model of consistency. The Marlins aren't very good this year, and the Mets... well they're awful. Just awful.

NL Central

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Chicago Cubs

The Reds should win this division but it will be very close. The Cardinals are no joke and will be within 5 games. Milwaukee should rename itself to Mediocre, the Pirates need another big bat to go with McCutchen, as well as a bit more pitching, and the Cubs are almost as bad as the Mets. Almost.

NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. San Diego Padres
5. Colorado Rockies

Los Angeles seems to have put together TWO very good baseball teams. The Dodgers and Giants will be trading 1st place back and forth I predict, but I'll give the edge to the Dodgers by 2 games. They will score a lot of runs with that offense, and San Fran's pitching is very tough. Should be an exciting battle between these two teams. The rest of them, put in any order you want. None of them have a chance at the playoffs.

NL Playoff Teams

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Washington Nationals
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. San Francisco Giants
5. St. Louis Cardinals

There you have it. Can't wait for the season to start. Meanwhile, on the fantasy front, following my disappointing football showings, my NBA team won its regular season by 16 games, and has been on a bye this week. My playoff starts Monday. My free baseball team has been selected, and my two NCAA brackets (one free one for money) haven't gone to shit yet. My fantasy baseball team for money drafts on Thursday. There are 18 teams in the league. 18! Yikes! Stay tuned for those draft results as well as my NBA playoff predictions coming soon! Till then...

Fantasy Baseball 2013 Draft Results

   Well it's that time of year again folks. Baseball is back baby! I recently had my fantasy draft for bragging rights in The New England League. I won the championship the past two years and am going for the threepeat. So without further adieu...


So I had the 8th pick out of 10 teams. This is my 10th year of participating in this league and I've had a top 3 pick once. Once. Ridiculous. Not that I need a top 3 to win this league, but it would be nice to have a sure thing in the 1st Round. I had four players targeted for a first round pick. Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder would've been fine. They all went 3-4-5-6. Crap. I didn't have a plan for that scenario. After throwing up all over my cheat sheet, I took Giancarlo Stanton first. Yes, Giancarlo Stanton. Who is Giancarlo Stanton? Vegas oddsmakers have him tied with Jose Bautista to win the HR title in 2013. He hit 37 bombs in just 449 ABs last season. I didn't want Votto or CarGo and I feel like Andrew McCutchen won't top what he did last season. I learned something long ago. Never draft a pitcher in the first round, and when in doubt, draft home runs. Here were my first 4 picks:

1. Giancarlo Stanton (OF)
2. Clayton Kershaw (SP)
3. David Price (SP)
4. Edwin Encarnacion (1B)

Two top 5 pitchers and between Stanton and Encarnacion I'm looking at 80-90 home runs. So far so good. I'm excited by the Encarnacion get. He hit 42 HRs last season and is on a MUCH improved Toronto Blue Jays' offense. In fact, at the time this post was published, Encarnacion smacked a two run double to give the Dominican Republic an early two run lead. They went on to win the game and the World Baseball Classic. Come get some!

Picks 5-8 went like this:

5. Starlin Castro (SS)
6. Ryan Zimmerman (3B)
7. Madison Bumgarner (SP)
8. Joe Mauer (C,1B)

I locked up my SS position quickly with Castro, and Bumgarner is an absolute STEAL in round 7. He is young and plays on the SF Giants which means now he has a ring to go with his 191 strikeouts from last year. Stick him with Kershaw and Price and that's the best 1-2-3 in the league. Starting pitching; check. Zimmerman seems like a nice player and went late in round 6. He should've been gone in the 4th round. Joe Mauer is a career .300 hitter. Sweet.

Picks 9-12:

9. Jonathan Papelbon (RP)
10. Carlos Beltran (OF)
11. Rickie Weeks (2B)
12. Brandon Morrow (SP)

I took Papelbon as my 9th pick figuring my starting pitching is good for a bit let's get some relief. I am notorious for drafting terrible relievers and I'm looking to break that trend with Paps in 2013. Carlos Beltran hit 32 HRs last season and goes nicely with Stanton in the outfield. The one position I neglected this year was 2B. That's ok given that the position isn't very deep to begin with and Weeks hit 21 homers last season. The only downer is his .230 batting average. Brandon Morrow has a lot of upside given the improvement of the Blue Jays who are my pick for 2nd in the AL East and a wild card in the playoffs.

Picks 13-16:

13. Joe Nathan (RP)
14. Chris Davis (1B,OF)
15. Nelson Cruz (OF)
16. Norichika Aoki (OF)

Joe Nathan secures my relief pitching and is in a different league than Paps so no chance they play each other unless there is an interleague matchup between the Phillies and Rangers. Chris Davis is another HR hitter (33 last season) and Nelson Cruz rounds out the outfield nicely. Round 15 is super late for him to be going off the board so there's some added value there. I like Aoki and his speed. He'll be a nice compliment to the power on my offense.

Picks 17-22:

17. Tim Hudson (SP)
18. Chase Utley (2B)
19. Jason Grilli (RP)
20. Alcides Escobar (SS)
21. Jeremy Hellickson (SP)
22. Grant Balfour (RP)

Hudson and Hellickson both play on good teams and should help my win total in pitching. Utley in Round 18 could be the steal of the draft if he stays healthy. In fact, I have him poised to take the starting job from Weeks at 2B. Utley is a potential 20/20 guy when at full strength. Escobar is a speedy backup to Castro at SS and Grilli and Balfour round out my bullpen nicely.


Hopefully this team can produce enough offense to compete. I love my pitching staff this year and I feel like I made the most of my draft position. Interestingly, I don't have anyone on my offense that I had last year. These are all new guys so we'll just have to see how it goes. Hopefully everyone stays healthy. Check back to this blog for my 2013 predictions on how the MLB standings will turn out. Till then...

A New Year, A New Tourney

   Hello readers! Long time no post I know. Sorry. Not much had been going on that's poker related. Holidays came and went. I've been a little financially challenged lately as I try to transition from seasonal employment to year-round employment. Been tough to get a home game together lately. It's cold and weather's been crappy. Yadda yadda yadda. Typical winter blues.

   I did find time and motivation however to play in Berkshire Poker's latest tournament this past Sunday benefiting the Cheshire Lions Club. Buy-in was $85, starting stack was 14,000 and 42 people entered. Top 5 paid.

   The first hour I started off slow. This is common for me in most tournaments. Fold, fold, fold. It didn't go unnoticed either as two people, including the dealer, commented on my "lack" of hands played which up until the first break was zero. To say I had a conservative image would be an understatement.


   The second hour with my stack at around 12,800 I picked up 10-10 in the big blind. There were two limpers so I decided to pull a dick move and go all-in. I didn't want action. Was just trying to take it right there really. Short stack who had just been moved to our table (it was his first hand) called with Ace-rag and my 10s held up. I ended hour 2 with about 37,000.


   Hour 3 was even better than hour 2. I picked up 10s two more times and knocked someone out on both hands. All in all I saw 10s 3 times and every time had the same result. I made the final table running about 5th or 6th in chips.


   Eventually I busted 4 handed with K-Q suited. I got called by K-7 who rivered a straight 5-6-7-8-9 when the 8 came. The cash was worth $225 and my second in a row. My friend Matt finished 3rd. This was the second straight tournament that we both made the final table and cashed. Interestingly this was also the second straight tournament I was not dealt Q-Q, K-K, or A-A!!! WTF??? Imagine what could happen if I actually got some quality starting hands...

A Night To Remember

  I was looking back at some of my old posts recently and I noticed all the ones about my results in poker tournaments have been about losses. You all must think I'm pretty bad at poker because my tournament finishes have been fairly disappointing. True, I only play a handful per year, but its been over 4 years since I've cashed. This past Sunday would change all that.

  Berkshire Poker's latest stop was at the Polish Community Center in Pittsfield. Buy-in was $85 (I forgot to pre-register) and had about 30 players. We started with 12,000 in chips. The first hour started slow. The dealer at my table had never played cards in his life and he couldn't shuffle. His girlfriend stood behind him and shuffled a 2nd deck while he dealt. He was a good guy though and he caught on quickly. The only hand I had in the first hour of play worth talking about was when I had A-K. Blinds were 100/200 and I made a raise to 1000. The guy to my left called and we saw a flop of 2-4-5. I bet 2000 and after thinking for a minute or two, he folded K-K face up. I literally almost shat myself. He had somehow convinced himself that I had Aces and declared it was too early to start messing around with K-K. I said nothing.

  At the first break I had 14,400 in chips and a new table with an extremely competent dealer who knew how to move the game along. Hour 2 wasn't much different from Hour 1. I held my own and continued to be patient. I sat at 16,900 going into the 2nd break.

  Hour 3 was insane. Sitting on about 16,000  I picked up A-Q offsuit in the big blind. There were 2 limpers in for 1000 each. I moved all-in and was promptly called by both players! Crap! I thought. Here we go again right? Imagine my surprise when they both turned over the same hand: A-J. Boom! After that hand I was sitting on 45,000 and into the driver's seat I went.

  A few hands later the guy who laid down K-K to me busted out and begged me to tell him what I had. "You had Aces right?", he asked. "No.", I replied/lied. "I had 4-4 for a set. You made a good laydown." There was no way in hell I was telling this kid the truth about what I had. Courtesy or no courtesy, I may have to play with him again someday. (More on this coming up in future posts). Hopefully he's not reading my blog. Ha! If so, sorry kid. Now ya know though. ;)

  I made the final table somewhat comfortably. I think I was running 3rd or 4th in chips with 10 to go and 4 people paid. Then, it happened. The ultimate suckout. Once again I had A-Q and moved all-in for about 45,000. I was called by a gentlemen two seats to my left who only had about 14 or 15000 so I had him covered in chips, but not in cards as he held the deadly A-A. Ouch! Flop was K-4-J. The 10 hit the turn giving me broadway. A meaningless 7 hit the river and he was busto. Terrible I know. I've had that type of thing happen to me many times (see previous posts) and I felt his pain. Still, I couldn't help but grin. Break 3 arrived shortly after and my stack sat at 53,500.

  We decided when we got to 6 handed that 5th place would get $50 back. A nice gesture and I gladly contributed. 6 players left and 5th would be considered a cash. My stack was modest and there was no need to rush things. I eventually grinded down to 3 handed play. Sweet eh? Only problem was I only had 30,000 chips left and blinds were 5000/10000. I was already thinking about what I was gonna have for dinner to celebrate my 3rd place finish when I went all-in with A-2 and was called by the kid on my left with A-9. Board ran out 6-10-4-2-4. 60,000 now. A couple hands later I moved with K-9 and was called by the same kid with J-10. K-9 held and now I was over 100,000 and very much back in it. I eventually got heads-up and was behind in chips. Before the first hand was even dealt, the guy offered to split the remaining money evenly and I gladly accepted. He got credit for 1st place, but I didn't care. Not like we get a trophy, or better yet, a gold bracelet. $490 was a nice payout. I threw Barry The Dealer a 10 spot and out the door I went. The monkey (or APE as I like to refer to him) was finally off my back. Not only was it a cash, but first place money! See? I DO know how to play.

  One interesting footnote: I was not dealt A-A, K-K, or Q-Q the entire tournament. Who needs good cards to win?
 

My Saturday at Skyline

   Skyline Country Club was the venue for Berkshire Poker's most recent charity tourney benefiting the Lanesborough Tree & Forest Committee. The buy-in was $75 and 25 people showed up to play. To say that I was card dead at this one would be a gross understatement. To be dead one must have been alive at some point. Didn't happen on this day. In 2 hours of play, I played a total of 2 hands. In the 3rd hour, hanging on for dear life, I doubled up with A-J vs K-Q. Even with that double up, I was still short-stacked. I just never got going. Eventually, with just 2 big blinds left (2000/4000) I picked up A-2 and ran into A-A! Ouch! Really not much to write about here. Sometimes you just don't get any cards, and there is simply nothing you can do. Despite the dismal run, I still managed to finish 11th. Imagine how well I could have done if I actually got a hand or two! I was happy with how I played, but I made one crucial mistake (not that it would have mattered) on the hand right before the 2nd break. I picked up 6-6 on the button and was contemplating whether or not to go all-in, when the moron to my left went all-in out of turn. He acted out of turn 3 times in fact! I folded my 6's and would have flopped quads. Nothing pisses me off more in poker than when people act out of turn. If it happens once it's fine, but when it happens more than that, it's inexcusable. I'm not blaming this cesspool of idiocy for my misfortune, but c'mon man! Pay attention!!!


   Anywho, my next planned tourney is the $10,000 guarantee at Mohegan Sun the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. Buy-in is $120. Stay tuned for the results! Till then...

Bloody Mohegan Sunday

 

   My hopes were high as my friend Matt and I descended upon Mohegan Sun yesterday for their 5pm $120 super-stack No-Limit Hold 'Em tourney. Starting stack was 20K with 20 minute blinds. A much better structure than what I'm used to playing which favors the patient more conservative players. My mindset going in was to play small-ball in the early levels, then open up my game as the blinds increased. Deep into level 3 (75/150), I picked up Q-Q two seats to the right of the button. There were two limpers in front of me so I decided to raise it to 600. The button called as did one of the two limpers. The 3 of us saw a flop of 2-3-4 rainbow. The limper checked and I bet 1200 only to be raised by the button to 6025. The limper folded and it was decision time for me. Calling his bet was out of the question. I was out of position and I didn't want to get bet off the hand on the turn. I took a few moments to try and figure out what he had. K-K and A-A seemed unlikely. He probably would have re-raised pre-flop with those two hands. A set of 2's 3's or 4's? Maybe, but why raise on the flop? He probably would have smooth called my 1200 bet to entice me to bet more on the turn or river (at least that's what I would do). A-5 or 6-5? Again, why raise with the straight on the flop? You smooth call there to try to get more moola in the middle. There were no flush possibilities, so my final conclusion was a pair of 5's or 6's or A-K or A-Q. His raise seemed fishy to me like he wanted me off the hand cause he didn't know where he stood. I decided to raise all-in. My opponent snap-called with (if you guessed it you get a gold star!) 6-6! Ha! I had him right where I wanted him! Until the 5 hit the turn and I was out in 49th place out of 50. Felted again! Ugh! For the record, Matt finished 12th making another one of his patented deep runs. 8 were paid. His bust-out hand came when he moved all-in with K-J from the SB only to be called by the BB holding K-Q. (His sting wore off quickly however when, on our way out, he bet a $100 chip on black in roulette and it came up 15 black).

   This sparked a debate between the two of us at lunch this afternoon. If you're gonna bust out of a tournament, would you rather be ahead and get sucked out on? Or would you rather be behind the whole way? Basically, which one of us should be more frustrated? Now, for those of you who don't know me, I'm a very positive person, and for those of you that do know me, stop laughing. :) In all seriousness, the first 12-24 hours of a bust-out, I'm a terribly woeful and negative person, but after the natural frustration wears off and I've had time to honestly assess my play, reality sets back in. This is my thinking on it. I would MUCH rather be ahead and take a bad beat than be behind from the beginning. Bad beats hurt a lot more in the short-term. No doubt. But being behind from the start means I made a play that I shouldn't have, or wouldn't have had I known my opponent's hand. If someone had told me before I went all-in that my opponent had 6-6 to my Q-Q, I STILL would have gone all-in! Right play wrong result is better than wrong play. I think the reason my frustration level is so high when I go broke, is that I'm (almost) always AHEAD when it happens! At least at the end of the day I can feel comfortable blaming the "Poker Gods" for my loss, rather than myself. And that will always keep me coming back for more.